Thursday, September 12, 2013

Sending the Wrong Message to Iran

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
In a recent article for Foreign Affairs, Suzanne Maloney puts to rest the tired argument that the United States must intervene in Syria to send a message to Iran. Certain vocal proponents of striking the Syrian regime assert that the Iranian government will take a failure to punish chemical weapons use as encouragement to push ahead toward a nuclear weapon. They argue that, lacking a sufficiently large and bloodied stick, there would be no reason for the Iranians to voluntarily relinquish their nuclear ambitions*. Maloney aptly points out that these proponents lack an understanding of the Iranian point of view—one in which Iran, far from being a belligerent warmonger bent on domination of the region, has been unfairly pressed from all sides by a bullying America and a conniving Israel.

That their perception is wildly different from how American policy makers see events doesn't invalidate it. The perception is based on a different reading of history, but Americans too often discount or outright ignore the value Iranians place on Western slights against them. Indeed, Maloney points out that Iranian leaders are bitterly upset that America should raise such a fuss over Syria’s use of chemical weapons after silently looking the other way as Saddam Hussein gassed tens of thousands of Iranians—civilian and soldier alike. To many in Iran, America is simply seizing on an excuse to intervene and further its dominance of the Middle East.

Maloney writes that any attack would only strengthen recalcitrant hardliners in Iran, greatly increasing the likelihood that the US and Iran would come to blows over that country’s nuclear program by undermining the prospects of any diplomatic resolution. I certainly agree and fear that those proponents who argue for intervention on the basis of the “credibility” of our threat of force outright desire such a conflict. These same people often denounce the offering of carrots to go along with the stick, pushing the Iranian government into a corner and creating the very problems we seek to avoid. Iran does have an elevated sense of its deserved role in the region, but punitive American policy and rhetoric toward Iran ensures that role remain in opposition to our interests.

In the country’s most recent elections, the Iranian people voted out the hardliners and raised a relative moderate, Hassan Rouhani, to the Presidency. It remains to be seen whether the extent of his authority goes beyond what Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, but his win reflects the desire of the Iranian people to pursue a path forward that both maintains the dignity of the Iranian people and improves relations with the rest of the world. Anti-Iranian pundits have lost the bogeyman they had in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (who was, in fact, a lame duck years before this election), but risk squandering the opportunity for dialogue by maintaining an all-stick approach to Iran.

By pursuing the diplomatic resolution to the chemical weapons problem as offered by Russia and Syria, America demonstrates that its designs on the region are benign. Bringing Iran into the conversation would help prospects for nuclear talks by building trust and understanding that, if done right, may carry forward even should the Syria initiative fall apart. American hardliners must not be allowed to guide policy toward yet more conflict in the Middle East.


* Note that Iran has not been discovered to be pursuing outright weaponization. Though they are clearly pushing toward the capability to construct a weapon should they so desire, UN inspectors have found no evidence of the construction of a nuclear weapon. Iran should certainly be more transparent with their program, but they do have a legitimate right to pursue peaceful development under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

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