International Relations and E.T.: Musings on Independence Day

For some time now, I've been kicking around the idea of writing a longer piece on the effect of a "First Contact" scenario on international geopolitics.  Inspired by Daniel Drezner's Theories of International Politics and Zombies--a book that succeeds in being both informative and entertaining--a focus on inter-state relations following the appearance of an extraterrestrial actor upon the world stage would present its own unique set of insights into how different paradigms suggest the way the world works.  Though neither a zombie outbreak nor an alien invasion are particularly likely, the hypothetical scenarios are useful in the analysis and explanation of various concepts in the field--from the balance of power to state sovereignty.  This post is but a brief look at a few examples in popular media that serve to highlight both the positive and the negative about this approach.

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Though I wouldn't go so far as to label Independence Day a "good" film, it certainly merits "entertaining". To summarize: Alien vessels of unknown intentions show up over major cities around the planet; Their fiendish plan uncovered too late to save New York, but just in time to save the handsome, young President; Human ingenuity and alien overconfidence lead to a David-vs-Goliath victory over the invader. The plot is no masterpiece, but it succeeds in keeping a sufficiently credulous audience on the edge of their seats.

Independence Day, unsurprisingly, generally ignores the rest of the world until the U.S.A. saves the day, leaving much of the first contact a purely bilateral affair.  The nation, confronted with an alien presence of clear technological superiority and extensive resources, is understandably cowed, but the initial inaction of the invaders leads to widespread uncertainty as to their intentions.  While the president and the military remain anxiously on alert, some Americans take the arrival as cause for celebration, expecting something closer to Star Trek aliens rather than Alien aliens.

Perceptions of power and intent both factor in significantly to real-world geopolitics.  A state that considers itself weaker than actor it believes to be threatening will likely pursue coalition-building in order to augment its capabilities relative to the threat.  An extraterrestrial actor, merely by virtue of having traversed the interstellar space, will almost automatically be perceived as immensely powerful at first contact--assuming the encounter isn't one out of a comedy or a heart-warming family film.  Their intent, too, will automatically be viewed with great suspicion and apprehension until steps are taken to assuage Earth's fears.  A first contact on the scale of that in Independence Day would drive the world's states together, and the aggression that followed would keep them that way.

So here we have the beginnings of a way to quantify the character of the extraterrestrial, from which we can better analyze potential state responses: 1) Relative Power and 2) Degree of Malign Intent.  Let's look at a few examples of other alien encounters in the media.

V (2009)

A remake of a 1983 mini-series, V helps make it clear that the above categories are still about perception.  Though the show's aliens carry with them an intent just as malign toward mankind as did the aliens of Independence Day, they go to incredible (literally) lengths to conceal their true purpose--not least by wearing a fake human skin over their true lizard selves.  By preaching a message of peace and appearing to help humanity, they come close to subjugating humanity.  And they would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for a couple pesky paranoiacs and dissenters in their ranks that had discovered what it means to be human.  A long-con, divide and conquer technique would be the least resource-intensive method for effective planetary dominance.  As soon as the unifying fear of an existential threat dissipates, everyone starts jockeying for position as the aliens' favorite.

Scary Movie 3 (2003)

The aliens of Scary Movie 3, in a parody of M. Night Shyamalan's Signs, initially terrorize a planet convinced they possess significant power and pose a real threat to humanity.  By the end of the film, it is revealed that neither is the case.  Though it is safe to assume that a species capable of interstellar travel poses a real threat to the people of Earth, it is well within reason that initial misunderstandings could blow perceived threat grossly out of proportion to reality.  An excess of either credulity or hysteria could lead to monumentally poor decisions.

Have an exciting (and safe) Independence Day!

(Don't ask)

An End to the Morsi Malaise: 3 Dangers

On July 3rd, 2013--mere hours ago as of this writing--Mohammed Morsi's brief time as president of Egypt was put to an end. The precedent set is of mixed quality: ousted in a unilateral declaration from the national army, but on the very explicit behest of the Egyptian people, it is hard to say what the future holds for Egyptian democracy. The extra-constitutional removal of a sitting president is hardly a recipe for governmental stability in the future, but it is difficult to imagine what alternative path might have been taken with hundreds of thousands of citizens in the streets and Morsi obstinately refusing any concession. In his year in power, Morsi presided over an economy in a downward spiral yet focused instead on cementing his own rule (inadequately) and forcing through social policy of a decidedly Islamist tinge.

Anyone expecting a new start and quick turn of fortune for Egypt is unfortunately asking too much.  For a country in which tourism plays such a vital role in the economy, the upheavals and general decay in social order of the last few years have strangled the industry. The interim government and any hypothetical successor--legitimately elected or not--may prove no more successful than their predecessor at arresting the decline. Egypt may well be in the grip of a vicious cycle: a poor economy creates frustrated citizens; frustrated citizens create social disorder, social disorder worsens the economy, and so on.

What does this all mean for the United States? While we should hope for the best, we must prepare for the worst. What follows are three potentially deleterious consequences of these recent events for American interests.

1) The Egyptian Army Loses Legitimacy
The Egyptian military is theoretically the actor most attuned to desires in Washington, thanks to decades of officer exchange programs and, of course, billions of dollars in direct military aid. Almost a state within a state, the military is relatively well-off and uneager to jeopardize their position. At the moment they retain the population's long-standing respect and are boosted by the latest intervention, but the longer they stay in the public sphere, the more likely it is for popular attitudes to turn against them.

This could be seen during the lead-up to last-year's elections, when many of the same standing in the streets these last few days then stood against military leaders out of fear of encroaching military dictatorship. If perceived to be too heavy-handed and power-hungry, the military could soon find renewed protests targeting them. On the other hand, inaction, too, could diminsh their reputation if the country's internal security further deteriorates. A classic "Damned if you do; damned if you don't" situation, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces must walk a very fine line in the year ahead. The Obama administration should probably offer advice on the matter, though ought take care not to be condescending.

2) The Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes
For decades, the Muslim Brotherhood had been the opposition party in Egypt, almost institutionally so. Those seeking alternative to Mubarak's unflinching authoritarianism turned to it, whether Islam factored into their priorities or not. But it was not always so. Before an uneasy ceasefire settled between the Brothers and the regime, the organization was not too far divided from those pursuing a violent end to the governments of Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak.

If pushed by the military and the internal security forces, a rhetoric of resistance could well re-emerge. While much of cosmopolitan Egypt may turn their backs, the more traditional hinterland may show a greater degree of sympathy. Needless to say, more religiously-themed conflict is the last thing the region needs. If the Muslim Brotherhood or a more extreme alternative turn to force of arms, an already bloody region will get bloodier. The United States must discourage the leaders of this coup from instigating revanchism.

3) The International Community Intervenes in the Suez
The Suez Canal is one of the most frequented shipping routes in the world and is particularly vital to the European market. Whether from radicalized Islamists, tribes of the Sinai, or just disgruntled hooligans, threats or outright damages could trigger an international response aimed at safeguarding traffic. The Egyptian people may respond none to well to foreign intervention on their sovereign territory and the action would add yet further tension to the region. The United States along with its allies must reaffirm to the Egyptian military just how vital the Canal is.