International Relations and E.T.: Musings on Independence Day

For some time now, I've been kicking around the idea of writing a longer piece on the effect of a "First Contact" scenario on international geopolitics.  Inspired by Daniel Drezner's Theories of International Politics and Zombies--a book that succeeds in being both informative and entertaining--a focus on inter-state relations following the appearance of an extraterrestrial actor upon the world stage would present its own unique set of insights into how different paradigms suggest the way the world works.  Though neither a zombie outbreak nor an alien invasion are particularly likely, the hypothetical scenarios are useful in the analysis and explanation of various concepts in the field--from the balance of power to state sovereignty.  This post is but a brief look at a few examples in popular media that serve to highlight both the positive and the negative about this approach.

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Though I wouldn't go so far as to label Independence Day a "good" film, it certainly merits "entertaining". To summarize: Alien vessels of unknown intentions show up over major cities around the planet; Their fiendish plan uncovered too late to save New York, but just in time to save the handsome, young President; Human ingenuity and alien overconfidence lead to a David-vs-Goliath victory over the invader. The plot is no masterpiece, but it succeeds in keeping a sufficiently credulous audience on the edge of their seats.

Independence Day, unsurprisingly, generally ignores the rest of the world until the U.S.A. saves the day, leaving much of the first contact a purely bilateral affair.  The nation, confronted with an alien presence of clear technological superiority and extensive resources, is understandably cowed, but the initial inaction of the invaders leads to widespread uncertainty as to their intentions.  While the president and the military remain anxiously on alert, some Americans take the arrival as cause for celebration, expecting something closer to Star Trek aliens rather than Alien aliens.

Perceptions of power and intent both factor in significantly to real-world geopolitics.  A state that considers itself weaker than actor it believes to be threatening will likely pursue coalition-building in order to augment its capabilities relative to the threat.  An extraterrestrial actor, merely by virtue of having traversed the interstellar space, will almost automatically be perceived as immensely powerful at first contact--assuming the encounter isn't one out of a comedy or a heart-warming family film.  Their intent, too, will automatically be viewed with great suspicion and apprehension until steps are taken to assuage Earth's fears.  A first contact on the scale of that in Independence Day would drive the world's states together, and the aggression that followed would keep them that way.

So here we have the beginnings of a way to quantify the character of the extraterrestrial, from which we can better analyze potential state responses: 1) Relative Power and 2) Degree of Malign Intent.  Let's look at a few examples of other alien encounters in the media.

V (2009)

A remake of a 1983 mini-series, V helps make it clear that the above categories are still about perception.  Though the show's aliens carry with them an intent just as malign toward mankind as did the aliens of Independence Day, they go to incredible (literally) lengths to conceal their true purpose--not least by wearing a fake human skin over their true lizard selves.  By preaching a message of peace and appearing to help humanity, they come close to subjugating humanity.  And they would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for a couple pesky paranoiacs and dissenters in their ranks that had discovered what it means to be human.  A long-con, divide and conquer technique would be the least resource-intensive method for effective planetary dominance.  As soon as the unifying fear of an existential threat dissipates, everyone starts jockeying for position as the aliens' favorite.

Scary Movie 3 (2003)

The aliens of Scary Movie 3, in a parody of M. Night Shyamalan's Signs, initially terrorize a planet convinced they possess significant power and pose a real threat to humanity.  By the end of the film, it is revealed that neither is the case.  Though it is safe to assume that a species capable of interstellar travel poses a real threat to the people of Earth, it is well within reason that initial misunderstandings could blow perceived threat grossly out of proportion to reality.  An excess of either credulity or hysteria could lead to monumentally poor decisions.

Have an exciting (and safe) Independence Day!

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